Multi-Step Vector Output Prediction of Time Series Using EMA LSTM

Mohammad Diqi; Ahmad Sahal; Farida Nur Aini

doi:10.15575/join.v8i1.1037

Authors

Mohammad Diqi Department of Informatics, Universitas Respati Yogyakarta, Indonesia, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9012-9080
Ahmad Sahal Department of Information Technology, Universitas Respati Yogyakarta, Indonesia, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6771-4233
Farida Nur Aini Department of Information Technology, Universitas Respati Yogyakarta, Indonesia, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15575/join.v8i1.1037

Keywords:

Deep learning, EMA, LSTM, Multi-step vector output, Time series prediction

Abstract

This research paper proposes a novel method, Exponential Moving Average Long Short-Term Memory (EMA LSTM), for multi-step vector output prediction of time series data using deep learning. The method combines the LSTM with the exponential moving average (EMA) technique to reduce noise in the data and improve the accuracy of prediction. The research compares the performance of EMA LSTM to other commonly used deep learning models, including LSTM, GRU, RNN, and CNN, and evaluates the results using statistical tests. The dataset used in this study contains daily stock market prices for several years, with inputs of 60, 90, and 120 previous days, and predictions for the next 20 and 30 days. The results show that the EMA LSTM method outperforms other models in terms of accuracy, with lower RMSE and MAPE values. This study has important implications for real-world applications, such as stock market forecasting and climate prediction, and highlights the importance of careful preprocessing of the data to improve the performance of deep learning models.

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